Why Obama Will Be the Latest Democrat to Lose in the South

THE interim between the primaries and the parties' nominating conventions is, according to ancient writ, a fertile period for presidential campaigns to talk about how they plan to expand the political map in the fall. This year is no different. Barack Obama's strategists are suggesting that the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party can parlay increased turnout among black voters into a string of victories in the South.

Given that roughly half of all African-Americans live in the 11 former Confederate states, the idea seems intuitive enough. It's also wrong. Prying Southern electoral votes away from the Republicans is not so simple.