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19 Votes
35 Comments
Why Obama Will Be the Latest Democrat to Lose in the South
News Type: Opinion — Seeded on Tue Jul 1, 2008 12:50 PM EDT
Article Source: The New York Timesadvertisement
THE interim between the primaries and the parties' nominating conventions is, according to ancient writ, a fertile period for presidential campaigns to talk about how they plan to expand the political map in the fall. This year is no different. Barack Obama's strategists are suggesting that the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party can parlay increased turnout among black voters into a string of victories in the South.
Given that roughly half of all African-Americans live in the 11 former Confederate states, the idea seems intuitive enough. It's also wrong. Prying Southern electoral votes away from the Republicans is not so simple.
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3.9
{"commentId":2094756,"authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
Some interesting points including this one:
The first myth is that African-American turnout in the South is low. Black voters are actually well represented in the Southern electorate: In the 11 states of the former Confederacy, African-Americans were 17.9 percent of the age-eligible population and 17.9 percent of actual voters in 2004, analysis of Census Bureau data shows.
Schaller also supports that Democrats do worse in states with higher percentages of African-Americans because in these states a higher percentage of whites go Repubican. It does seem farfetched that Obama could capture southern electoral votes by courting black voters because Obama will probably get 90-95% of the black vote and most democrats get 80% or so anyway. The electoral college really needs to be overhauled altogether, but that's another story.
{"commentId":2094756,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
- 3 votes
#1 - Tue Jul 1, 2008 12:56 PM EDT{"commentId":2095188,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
I agree with Schaller's analysis although as a Virginian I would also add that the Richmond area has changed demographically as well with an influx of Yankee retirees. The same holds true in Tidewater in the Williamsburg and Virginia Beach area. Still, I think McCain will win Virginia narrowly based on the fact that Obama won't be able to count on a percentage of the military vote like Jim Webb did in his narrow win over George Allen and the downstate and out west vote will go for McCain much more heavily than it did for Allen. And yes, I'm sad to say, race will be a factor.
{"commentId":2095188,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":2095262,"authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
Not to hijack this thread but there's a Washington Post article I seeded yesterday exactly about the demographic changes of Virginia. It argues that Virginia is becoming more Democratic and there's a good chance Obama will win. Still, I don't think Virginia is exactly what Schaller is talking about, or if it is, it's an exception. Fittingly, Virginia has a smaller black population than the Carolinas, Alabama, Georgia and other more Southern states. So perhaps Schaller's logic holds true.
{"commentId":2095262,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":2095866,"authorDomain":"babin"}
After living in Memphis TN most my life I can attest that while a Black candidate can take a city (such as memphis or atlanta) it is the majority leadership in cities such as Nashville that takes the state to the right and for the other candidate. Not very centrist, and A LOT of gun toting rednecks that want their old school white gun proud repub in the white house.
Not much social evolution since MLK jr. But that's another topic.
{"commentId":2095866,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"babin"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":2096667,"authorDomain":"mrmajek"}
I'm presently entombed in Memphis and it is a cultural retardation project worth study. If the influx of Hispanics and Eastern Indians into Memphis is anywhere near matched in Nashville, Knoxville, and Chattanooga that might eventually change to at least a coin toss.
{"commentId":2096667,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"mrmajek"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":2096717,"authorDomain":"babin"}
Leave. Now.
Do yourself and your family a favor.
The city is a cesspool of hatred and declination.
I'm not exaggerating - I was there for 24 years.
{"commentId":2096717,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"babin"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":2096804,"authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
Jeez guys. I knew a guy who moved to Memphis a few years ago from somewhere I can't really remember and liked it. Perhaps you guys are hangin' in the wrong sections of town, not that I would know.
{"commentId":2096804,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":2096933,"authorDomain":"babin"}
I'm from the suburbs of Memphis but grew up playing shows downtown. Any way you slice it there are better cities to live in - I mean I'm sure other places are worse, but I don't advise memphis as a happy place to raise a family or retain a positive mental outlook on life, regardless of the part of town.
{"commentId":2096933,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"babin"}
{"commentId":2097129,"authorDomain":"glweeks"}
Lived in Downtown Memphis for the last 8 years and Memphis is a cesspool of political corruption and violence... I finally got out in April and never looked back. Watching the local news was like watching a soap opera...
{"commentId":2097129,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"glweeks"}
{"commentId":2097248,"authorDomain":"babin"}
Or like watching COPS - they actually film there too
I guess you heard about Herrington resigning...
{"commentId":2097248,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"babin"}
{"commentId":2097278,"authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
yeah remind me how that all worked out for the gop in the recent miss elections.
remind me where miss is?
remind me what mississippi is famous for(thing desegregation),, you really cant get much racists than miss, nor more red of a state.
realality debunsk this article.
{"commentId":2097278,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":2099892,"authorDomain":"hircus"}
@Bill:
Schaller made the same point, in citing Virginia and Florida as exceptions to the rule. Note that the observation that the more African-American voters there are in the electorate, the more white voters support the other candidate, also holds in the recent Democratic primaries -- Obama did much better among whites, compared to Hillary, the *lower* the percentage of black voters.
Race is still an issue. The question is whether it's still real racism, or tactical voting by whites to overcome the perceived block voting of black voters for Obama?
{"commentId":2099892,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"hircus"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":2100679,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
I'm speaking here only of Virginia which I know well. One should also keep in mind that ideas do matter and here I'm thinking of Doug Wilder's successful gubernatorial run twenty years ago when the Old Dominion was far more conservative than it is today. Wilder won because he ignored the pleas from his old firebrand buddies from the civil rights era in the General Assembly like Harold Marsh and ran as a fiscal conservative pledged to end a brief fiscal crisis not by raising taxes but by tightening the Commonwealth's belt. If Obama wants to win Virginia he best listen to former Gov. Wilder. I might also add that Wilder won while also violating one of the oldest racial taboos of Dixie, dating a rich white woman in the personage of Patricia Kluge.
{"commentId":2100679,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 4 votes
{"commentId":2101737,"authorDomain":"spiffie"}
Josh Orton over at MyDD doesn't disagree with Schaller, but does note that prior polling does still show a sliver of hope for Obama.
{"commentId":2101737,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"spiffie"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":2107949,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
It's all predicated on two things, spiffster. One, increasing Democratic turnout and winning over independents and two, Republican voters staying a bit more at home than they were for Bush last time out. Both are possibilities but longshots imho.
Obama is very fortunate that the whole Rev. Wright thing came out when it did. If it had come out in say September, his goose would have been cooked.
{"commentId":2107949,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":2096064,"authorDomain":"lilorphant"}
Whatever, this is the New York Times sayig what is up in the South? uhm...yeah...right.
There's a lot to be said that maybe in the South, not a few whites go Republican because of racial attitudes (which is what this article is saying in case you didn't get it) There's quite a lot of people who simply won't show up this fall either because McCain doesn't resonate with them either.
Winning the Presidency in the South is all about getting out the vote, actually inspiring people to come out and vote. So yeah there's a big old hill of conservatism going on and conservative Democrats are the favored flavor of Democrat in South, (EVEN AMONG BLACKS).
{"commentId":2096064,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"lilorphant"}
- 2 votes
#2 - Tue Jul 1, 2008 3:18 PM EDT{"commentId":2096126,"authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
You could be right, but Mr. Obama is by no means a conservative Democrat.
{"commentId":2096126,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":2096245,"authorDomain":"caroaber"}
Sen. Obama should not hope to win over white voters? Mr. Schaller's opinions are just that, and it's telling that this speculation is given such prominence by the NY Times.
Slow news day?
{"commentId":2096245,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"caroaber"}
- 2 votes
#3 - Tue Jul 1, 2008 3:38 PM EDT{"commentId":2096310,"authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
Slow news day?
Probably, but not even questioning that Obama could win over Southern whites seems valid. They have consistently driven the entire southern region of the country to vote Republican for the past 40-some years. Why, with a fairly liberal candidate in Obama, would that change?
{"commentId":2096310,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":2096566,"authorDomain":"caroaber"}
A large segment of the South supported the democrat Jimmy Carter. Lightning can strike twice.
{"commentId":2096566,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"caroaber"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":2096612,"authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
Good point. I forgot about that one.
Still, look how it turned out. :/
{"commentId":2096612,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
{"commentId":2100727,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
I wouldn't carry the '76 analogy too far. One, Ford was coming off the Nixon pardon and a tough primary challenge from Reagan and two, Carter ran as a conservative on many issues. Four years later he would suffer a complete reversal and lose every Southern state save for his native Georgia.
{"commentId":2100727,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":2097120,"authorDomain":"onlineapps"}
Here's the excerpt that basically sums it all up.
Mississippi, the state with the nation's highest percentage of African-Americans in its population, illustrates how difficult Mr. Obama's task will be in the South. Four years ago, President Bush beat John Kerry there by 20 points. For the sake of argument, let's assume that Mr. Obama could increase black turnout in Mississippi to 39 percent of the statewide electorate, up from 34 percent in 2004, according to exit polls. And let's assume that Mr. Obama will win 95 percent of those voters, up from the 90 percent who voted for Mr. Kerry four years ago.
If that happened, the black vote would yield Mr. Obama 37 percent of Mississippi's statewide votes. To get the last 13 percent he needs for a majority, Mr. Obama would need to persuade a mere 21 percent of white voters in Mississippi to support him. Sounds easy, right?
But only 14 percent of white voters in the state supported Mr. Kerry. Mr. Obama would need to increase that number by 7 percentage points — a 50 percent increase. Mr. Obama struggled to attract white Democrats in states like Ohio and South Dakota. It strains credulity to believe that he will attract three white voters in Mississippi for every two that Mr. Kerry did.
{"commentId":2097120,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"onlineapps"}
- 5 votes
#4 - Tue Jul 1, 2008 4:55 PM EDT{"commentId":2101743,"authorDomain":"spiffie"}
SurveyUSA poll of the race (the only one that I'm aware of so far) already shows Obama getting 20% of the white vote against McCain (who pulls "only" 74% of it). There may well be something of a Wilder Effect going on here - it's impossible to say. But it's a start.
If that polling holds up (and all applicable caveats here, as early polling almost never holds up), then Obama is within striking distance of where he needs to be with the white vote. Itʼs still an unlikely win, but I donʼt think itʼs quite as impossible as Schaller is making it out to be. Certainly Obama still has more reason to hope on this longest of long shots than McCain did when he was making noises about turning California. Heh.
{"commentId":2101743,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"spiffie"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":2097272,"authorDomain":"antispami-hussein"}
I believe it is unfortunate for us republicans that the Carl Rowe strategy has finally run its course! All the soccer-moms, evangelicals, right-to-lifers and baby-boom elitists won't save the grand ole party this time.
Move over for generations X & Y, which will come out by the tens of thousands for environmental, economical and social justice. The younger generation has finally woken-up to discover their parents really dropped the ball being greedy self-centered egotistical maniacs!
Take advantage of the oil commodity bubble while you can, because the party is just about to end.
My Friends...
[I wish it wasn't so because I am going to need capital gains protection like crazy come January]
{"commentId":2097272,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"antispami-hussein"}
- 2 votes
#5 - Tue Jul 1, 2008 5:08 PM EDT{"commentId":2098285,"authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
[I wish it wasn't so because I am going to need capital gains protection like crazy come January]
Big month on Newsvine?
{"commentId":2098285,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
{"commentId":2098529,"authorDomain":"partisanhack"}
The usual boozin' good ol' boys will go for their drinking buddy Bush's friend, but if Obama gets the VP slot right I think that there are enough thoughtful Christians and people who are really upset at how Bush has treated our military that a few surprises may be in store - if the ballots get counted.
{"commentId":2098529,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"partisanhack"}
- 2 votes
#6 - Tue Jul 1, 2008 7:17 PM EDT{"commentId":2098935,"authorDomain":"greenguy"}
Yea, I think trying to win the south, even Bob Barr-friendly Georgia, is a pipe dream.
{"commentId":2098935,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"greenguy"}
- 3 votes
#7 - Tue Jul 1, 2008 8:03 PM EDT{"commentId":2099803,"authorDomain":"Strath3303"}
I would say certain places allow for potential pick-ups are clear: Virginia, North Carolina and maybe Georgia. I`d say the first two are the more likely senarios. I really helps Obama that Warner is running for Senate there. It should help him upballot. Even if he doesn`t necessarily win here, he spreads McCain thin in areas that Reps haven`t had to compete in for years leaving the battlegrounds more open for him.
{"commentId":2099803,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"Strath3303"}
- 2 votes
#8 - Tue Jul 1, 2008 9:40 PM EDT{"commentId":2100777,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Nonsense. Virginians regularly split tickets as witnessed by our current setup of a Democratic governor and GOP lieutenant governor and attorney general. Further, downballot state candidates almost never boost the top of the national ticket but I do expect Warner to beat Jim Gilmore handily. The VA GOP is in considerable disarray but that's the subject for another article or seed.
{"commentId":2100777,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":2100879,"authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
Still, I don't think local and state officials are any indication that a presidential candidate has a shot. For example, we used to have Mitt Romney here in Massachusetts as governor. (Back then he was pretty moderate). Also in New York they have Bloomberg now and had Giuliani before him. Much of the time when a state has budgeting issues like these two states had, a Republican will have a good shot in the Gubernatorial race if people perceive him/her as a fiscal conservative. A similar situation may be true with Democrats in Virginia. But I don't think this means that any Republican president will ever have a shot at winning Massachusetts or New York in the foreseeable future.
{"commentId":2100879,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"DavidLamb"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":2107987,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Bloomberg's been a liberal Democrat his entire life and still is. He only ran as a Republican because Mark Green already had the Democratic nomination sewn up. As it was Green only lost narrowly (mainly because of the antics of Sharpton and Freddie Ferrer along with 9/11, of course). In a presidential year no one is going to be motivated to come out to vote for a down ticket candidate and thus boost the top of the ticket. If the presidential nominee is a weak one, however, that fact can be a drag on downticket candidates by suppressing turnout.
{"commentId":2107987,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":2099806,"authorDomain":"artchess15"}
Oh ye of little faith NYT.
{"commentId":2099806,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"artchess15"}
- 1 vote
#9 - Tue Jul 1, 2008 9:41 PM EDT{"commentId":2100782,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
I don't believe Mr. Schaller is an employee of the New York Times.
{"commentId":2100782,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":2101288,"authorDomain":"artchess15"}
I don't believe Mr. Schaller is an employee of the New York Times.
Oh ye of little faith Mr. Schaller.
{"commentId":2101288,"threadId":"303566","contentId":"1629167","authorDomain":"artchess15"}
- 1 vote
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